Teaching Elo to Play with Friends

Elo, part 4: How to rate everyone round the table — and keep our skill-o-meter honest

 Posted on December 12, 2025  |  12 minutes  |  2535 words  |  Markus Shepherd

At some point this year, I let my laptop run flat-out for almost two weeks just to answer one question: how much of a four-player board game is “skill” and how much is “luck”? That sounds excessive, but there was a catch: before I could even start those simulations, I had to fix a basic problem. Elo – the rating system we’ve been happily using so far – only really knows how to handle one-on-one duels. [Read More]
Elo rating  board games  luck vs skill  game analytics  rating systems  probability  statistics  skill measurement  simulation  p-deterministic games  machine learning  multiplayer games 

Elo as a Skill-O-Meter

Elo, part 3: What rating spreads in a toy universe tell us about luck and skill

 Posted on December 5, 2025  |  12 minutes  |  2451 words  |  Markus Shepherd

Whether a game counts as “skill” or “chance” isn’t just a pub argument — in many countries it’s a legal distinction. Roulette and blackjack live on the “chance” side; tennis and chess are filed under “skill”. Different rules, different taxes, different ways for people to lose money. The trouble is that this line is usually drawn by tradition and gut feeling. Is poker really “more skill” than backgammon? Is snooker closer to roulette or closer to chess? [Read More]
Elo rating  board games  luck vs skill  game analytics  rating systems  probability  statistics  skill measurement  snooker  tennis  sports analytics  simulation  p-deterministic games  machine learning 

Cue the maths: predicting snooker's next champion with Elo

Elo, part 2: How maths, models and millions of simulations might tell us who lifts the trophy

 Posted on April 19, 2025  |  13 minutes  |  2705 words  |  Markus Shepherd

Welcome to the Crucible This blog is usually all about board games, but let’s stretch the definition just a little: snooker is, after all, one of the most widely followed tabletop games in the world. And with the World Championship kicking off at the Crucible Theatre in Sheffield, I couldn’t resist the excuse to dive into something a bit different. In the last article, we looked at how Elo ratings can be used to measure player strength over time. [Read More]
Elo rating  Snooker 

Elo ratings explained

Elo, part 1: How to measure players' skills in games

 Posted on April 14, 2025  |  16 minutes  |  3361 words  |  Markus Shepherd

Chance in games is like seasoning in food — it’s all about the right amount. Just imagine a life without chance, where everything could be planned out strategically. That would get boring over time. In a game, I want to have experiences — I want adventure. A good game is like a miniature life, one where I can make mistakes, enjoy a streak of bad or good luck, and still recover. [Read More]
Elo rating  Logistic regression