Football

The group stage is over, the Round of 32 is set — and the model has changed its mind. ⚽️

When I ran the numbers before kickoff the model had a bold, market-contrarian opinion: 🇪🇸 Spain to win it at 35.3%, 🇦🇷 Argentina second at 23.0% and both dramatically underpriced by the bookies — Spain’s +19.3pp edge over Polymarket was the strongest disagreement between maths and money I’d ever put on this blog. I promised I’d come back on the other side of the trophy ceremony to find out whether the model deserved its confidence.

FIFA is a mafia. Now let’s watch football.

Let’s not beat about the bush: FIFA is a mafia, their Peace Prize a disgrace and a host country so hostile towards the expected guests from all over the world not worthy of that honour. But as soon as the whistle sounds later today and the first ball is kicked, none of this matters anymore and football (or soccer in freedom units) rules everything. ⚽️