Cue the maths: predicting snooker's next champion with Elo

Elo, part 2: How maths, models and millions of simulations might tell us who lifts the trophy

 Posted on April 19, 2025  |  13 minutes  |  2705 words  |  Markus Shepherd

Welcome to the Crucible This blog is usually all about board games, but let’s stretch the definition just a little: snooker is, after all, one of the most widely followed tabletop games in the world. And with the World Championship kicking off at the Crucible Theatre in Sheffield, I couldn’t resist the excuse to dive into something a bit different. In the last article, we looked at how Elo ratings can be used to measure player strength over time. [Read More]
Elo rating  Snooker 

Elo ratings explained

Elo, part 1: How to measure players' skills in games

 Posted on April 14, 2025  |  16 minutes  |  3361 words  |  Markus Shepherd

Chance in games is like seasoning in food — it’s all about the right amount. Just imagine a life without chance, where everything could be planned out strategically. That would get boring over time. In a game, I want to have experiences — I want adventure. A good game is like a miniature life, one where I can make mistakes, enjoy a streak of bad or good luck, and still recover. [Read More]
Elo rating  Logistic regression 

Beyond games: Visualising the Riemann Hypothesis

 Posted on October 23, 2024  |  2 minutes  |  298 words  |  Markus Shepherd

This subject has nothing to do with games nor data science, but chances are that amongst the readers of this blogs are many who appreciate mathematics – and its beauty. Long before Recommend.Games, I’ve had a blog on the Riemann Hypothesis – the famous conjecture which is usually formulated in terms of the zeros of the complex Riemann \(\zeta\)-function, but is really about the distribution of prime numbers. If you’re curious to learn more, check out the blog. [Read More]
Beyond games  Mathematics  Number theory  Prime numbers  Riemann zeta function  Riemann hypothesis  Python 

Debiasing the BoardGameGeek ranking

 Posted on September 20, 2024  |  14 minutes  |  2786 words  |  Markus Shepherd

Bias is a bit of an ugly word, isn’t it? It certainly has become one of those battle phrases in the culture war, where both sides of the argument accuse the other of forcing their biases onto society. Board game reviews frequently need to justify themselves for their biases affecting their views. Dan Thurot recently wrote a very eloquent piece on the matter, diving deeper into different kinds of biases. [Read More]
BoardGameGeek  Debiasing  ranking  rating  alternative rankings 

What was the best year for board games?

The highest rated years on BoardGameGeek

 Posted on August 22, 2024  |  9 minutes  |  1833 words  |  Markus Shepherd

Corey Thompson (of Above Board TV and Dice Tower Dish fame) recently raised an interesting question on the Board Games Insider podcast: In what year do you think the best titles (highest rated titles) were released? He actually answered the question twice, first in episode #328 based on an analysis he ran a couple of years ago and then again in #330 with more up-to-date data. I’m not going to spoil his answer here – the podcast in general is worth a listen – so go and find those episodes on your favourite podcast platform. [Read More]
BoardGameGeek  Ratings  Highest rated games  Corey Thompson  Board Games Insider  Golden age  Cult of the new 

Spiel des Jahres 2024 winners

 Posted on July 21, 2024  |  3 minutes  |  503 words  |  Markus Shepherd

The cat’s out of the bag and the winners have been announced! This year’s show was… even longer… 😅 After last year I’ve hoped for a snappier show – instead it was further extended. As much as I appreciate the jury’s work (which I’ve expressed at length), the stage isn’t where they shine, so I don’t understand why we need two awkward hours of their presence. It’s understandable they want to highlight various aspects of board gaming and their activities, since those are the only two hours of attention they get all year, but just as an endless recommendation list would water down the award, the rule in showbiz is to make every minute count. [Read More]
SdJ  SdJ 2024  Spiel des Jahres  Spiel des Jahres 2024  KSdJ  Kennerspiel  Kennerspiel des Jahres  Kennerspiel des Jahres 2024  Winners  Game of the Year  Germany  Sky Team  Daybreak 

Spiel des Jahres 2024 predictions – Part 2!

 Posted on July 8, 2024  |  9 minutes  |  1739 words  |  Markus Shepherd

The waiting is finally coming to an end! On Sunday, July 21, the jury will announce the winners of Spiel des Jahres and Kennerspiel des Jahres 2024. We’re blessed with another year of very strong games and I’m certainly very excited to learn what games will win the two awards. I’ve been doing this for four years now and I’ve called seven out of the eight winners correctly. No reason to rest on any laurels – there’s another batch of awards coming up, and this year might be the closest race yet! [Read More]
SdJ  SdJ 2024  Spiel des Jahres  Spiel des Jahres 2024  KSdJ  Kennerspiel  Kennerspiel des Jahres  Kennerspiel des Jahres 2024  Game of the Year  Germany  Predictions  Spiel des Jahres nominations  Spiel des Jahres 2024 nominations  SdJ nominations  Kennerspiel nominations  Kennerspiel des Jahres nominations  Kennerspiel des Jahres 2024 nominations  Captain Flip  In the Footsteps of Darwin  Sky Team  Daybreak  The Guild of Merchant Explorers  Ticket to Ride Legacy: Legends of the West 

Thoughts on Spiel des Jahres

What it is and what it isn't

 Posted on June 26, 2024  |  15 minutes  |  3144 words  |  Markus Shepherd

Some of you might have notices that I’m a bit of a Spiel des Jahres fanboy. 🙃 Every year when the award season rolls around, the discussion about the purpose and the influence of Spiel des Jahres comes up again. So I thought it’s a good idea to collect my thoughts on the subject in one handy place I can easily reference in the future. 🤓 What’s the purpose of Spiel des Jahres? [Read More]
Spiel des Jahres 

Spiel des Jahres 2024 nominations

 Posted on June 11, 2024  |  3 minutes  |  593 words  |  Markus Shepherd

Nominations are out! The jury selected a total of sixteen games for their longlist, nine for Spiel des Jahres and seven for Kennerspiel des Jahres. Out of these games, three games each are nominated for the two awards and can hope to get the coveted meeple added to their covers on July 21. Let’s dive straight into the nominations and recommendations, before we discuss how good (or bad) my predictions were and if the agreed with our Kennerspiel score. [Read More]
SdJ  SdJ 2024  Spiel des Jahres  Spiel des Jahres 2024  KSdJ  Kennerspiel  Kennerspiel des Jahres  Kennerspiel des Jahres 2024  Game of the Year  Germany  Predictions  Spiel des Jahres nominations  Spiel des Jahres 2024 nominations  SdJ nominations  Kennerspiel nominations  Kennerspiel des Jahres nominations  Kennerspiel des Jahres 2024 nominations  Captain Flip  In the Footsteps of Darwin  Sky Team  Daybreak  The Guild of Merchant Explorers  Ticket to Ride Legacy: Legends of the West 

Spiel des Jahres 2024 predictions

 Posted on May 31, 2024  |  8 minutes  |  1509 words  |  Markus Shepherd

Spiel des Jahres 2024 is around the corner! As in the previous four years, I’ll try to predict what games have the best shot at ending up on the longlist (aka recommendations) and the shortlist (aka nominations) when the jury announces their picks on June 11th. As every year, I’ll let the algorithms speak, but I’ve added something new this year: I tried to track the jury members’ reviews of all eligible1 games, in particular when they publish scores (such as in the magazine Spielbox), and fed those into the predictions. [Read More]
SdJ  SdJ 2024  Spiel des Jahres  Spiel des Jahres 2024  KSdJ  Kennerspiel  Kennerspiel des Jahres  Kennerspiel des Jahres 2024  Game of the Year  Germany  Predictions  Spiel des Jahres predictions  Spiel des Jahres 2024 predictions  SdJ predictions  Kennerspiel predictions  Kennerspiel des Jahres predictions  Kennerspiel des Jahres 2024 predictions